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IntermediateReading The Signals

Regime transitions and state probabilities

Markets change regime. These cards show what changed, how often it changes and which state the engine weighs highest next.

6 min read
1

The Transition Timeline

The Transition Timeline on the Structure Analysis page shows the asset's regime, period by period. Long flat stretches mean a stable regime; frequent steps mean the market has not settled.

Market Transition Timeline: this asset moving between Chaotic Market, Structure Change and Awaiting Confirmation.
2

Regime Transition across the market

On the Intelligence page, Regime Transition shows how the market's dominant regime changed over time. A shift across the whole market is useful context when you read individual assets.

MSI Regime Transition for the whole market.
3

State Probabilities

State Probabilities shows the relative likelihood the engine assigns to each next state. One clearly dominant bar means the engine expects continuity; several bars of similar size mean the next move is open.

Watch for the second-largest bar growing over several periods. A rising probability of Distributing while price still looks strong is the kind of shift this card makes visible.

Market State Probabilities next to Price Zone: likely next states and the price bands that matter.
4

Putting transitions to work

Combine the three: the timeline tells you how stable the regime has been, the market-wide transition tells you whether the backdrop is shifting, and the probabilities show which state the engine weighs highest next.

One period is not a trendA single flip can be noise. Wait for the new regime to hold, or for a higher timeframe to agree, before treating it as a change.