A good read does not only say what might happen. It also says what would make it wrong. In Antick, this part lives on the Metrics Breakdown page.
Two scenarios
Each read publishes one bullish and one bearish scenario, each with a weight. The scenario marked primary is the engine's base case, and the other is the alternate.
Risk Condition and Invalidation Zone
| Card | Contains | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Risk Condition | Measurable conditions that weaken the read | The more that are triggered, the weaker the read |
| Invalidation Zone | Triggers that would prove the read wrong | On MSI, a price trigger names the exact level |
| AI Takeaway | A one-sentence summary and the next signal to watch | Read it last, as a summary rather than an instruction |
Case study: the BTC 1H read
Here is the MSI read for BTC on the candle that closed at 20:00 UTC on October 30, 2026.
The bullish scenario was the base case at 61%, and the bearish scenario was 39%. These numbers are not a promise. The cards below show the read had already started to weaken.
- Risk Condition: 1 of 4 triggered, namely State Stability falling to −2.08.
- Invalidation Zone: 1 of 3 triggered, also from State Stability.
- Price level: the last close was 76,942.57. The read is invalidated on a close below 76,307.75.
Through the 1H Spot candle that opened at 06:00 UTC on October 31, BTC did not close below that level.
So the base case was bullish, yet one invalidation condition had already fired. The gap between the last close and the invalidation level was about 0.8%, which lets you judge whether that distance fits your own plan.
The invalidation level describes where the read stops applying. How you use it is your own decision.
Related guides: Scenarios, risk conditions and the invalidation zone
